The ongoing PRC advance in Latin America and associated end to the diplomatic truce with the ROC has legitimately raised the question of who might be next to abandon Taiwan for the benefits that come with recognition of the mainland.
The reports examine five specific areas—transnational security challenges, institutional capacity, economic growth, demographics, and technology—and how they will shape politics, economic and U.S. relations in Central America by 2030.
Crime and violence in the Northern Triangle is a regional issue that requires a collective response to the structural factors driving it: weak state capacity, corruption within police forces and the judiciary, and insufficient data. Deporting refugees back to the region doesn’t help.
In switching allegiance from Taiwan to PRC, President Varela will likely bring more investment and support for his country. But is it a security risk for the U.S. in the region and its interests in the Canal?
If Central America wants to get out of the middle-income trap it would do well to follow Uruguay’s lead and develop a focused, comprehensive industrial policy that builds on the region’s trade advantages.