This essay analyzes the multiple, simultaneous challenges and electoral processes currently affecting the situation and political-economic orientation of nations comprising the PacificRim, or spine, of Latin America. It examines the likely collapse of the trans-pacific partnership, the uncertain future of the Pacific Alliance, upcoming presidential elections in the next two years in Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, and Mexico, and another phenomenon, to conclude that the combination of these factors produces the possibility for significant change in the political and economic orientation of the region in the coming two years. It argues that such change, in combination with initiatives by the People’s Republic of China
A lot has been written about the risks of the proposed Border Adjustment Tax to U.S. consumers, on the U.S. budget, and on the appreciation of the dollar. The worse consequence would be on U.S.-Mexico production chains.
The enduring strength of U.S. institutions and civil society will mean less the “fundamental transformation” promoted by Trump supporters and more a “heated transition”—though still with uncertain consequences.
In a new series, different authors will look at President Trump’s promises and proposed policies that will affect Latin America and Hispanics: their possibility of being adopted and their impact. First up: re-negotiating NAFTA.