Taking advantage of the demonstrations that flared across Latin America at the end of 2019, outside actors worked to push legitimate social protest to violent extremes as a part of a deliberate destabilization strategy.
Colombia’s remaining guerrilla group, the ELN, is finally coming to the negotiating table. But the government is in a very different negotiating position with the ELN than with FARC, a point reflected in the vague, poorly worded negotiation agreement announced March 30th.
Conversations with Colombian security officials reveal concerns that Colombia’s peace agreement, if approved and implemented, may in the short term lead to greater violence, as former FARC members defect to the ELN and join in criminal and violent activities. How should Colombia, the U.S, and the EU prepare?