The reports examine five specific areas—transnational security challenges, institutional capacity, economic growth, demographics, and technology—and how they will shape politics, economic and U.S. relations in South America by 2030.
In recent years, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has become increasingly strategically interested in Latin America. Despite clear geopolitical goals, the Kremlin’s relationship with the region has been marked by pragmatic realpolitik.
While a significant portion of the Latin American left continues to be driven by an anti-U.S., personalistic agenda, Lenin Moreno represents a principled branch of that left. The U.S. can and must learn to deal with leaders like him in a constructive fashion.
Like their conservative predecessors, left-leaning presidents in Latin America have shown a tendency to fall for the vice of corruption. Recent studies argue the causes stem from more than just an absence of ethics but also high levels of inequality.
Ecuador still has a long way to go to recover from a polarizing ten years under populist Rafael Correa, but the first eight months of Lenín Moreno’s presidency have re-confirmed the importance of succession and regularly held elections.
President Moreno may not be a newfound ally for the U.S., but he is a reminder that today the greatest challenges to U.S. interests in the region aren’t ideological but criminality, poor governance and populism.