Mercosur must modernize to adapt to a new international geopolitical reality, but there’s no clear path forward. If it can’t reform, Mercosur risks joining the long list of failed dreams of regional integration.
The reports examine five specific areas—transnational security challenges, institutional capacity, economic growth, demographics, and technology—and how they will shape politics, economic and U.S. relations in South America by 2030.
Since the incoming government of Jair Bolsonaro backed out of Brazil’s plan to host the COP25 meetings next year, five Latin American and Caribbean countries—Barbados, Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala and Jamaica—have stepped up.
In recent years, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has become increasingly strategically interested in Latin America. Despite clear geopolitical goals, the Kremlin’s relationship with the region has been marked by pragmatic realpolitik.
President Trump has demonstrated an affinity for strongmen around the world. Now that he’s likely to have one in his neighborhood, don’t be surprised to see Jair Bolsonaro cozy up to the Trump administration.