Juan Guaidó’s political future will be determined in the next couple of weeks, as his term as president of the National Assembly expires on January 5, 2020. The young leader has already announced his reelection bid, but with a fragmented opposition, it won’t be an easy win.
Bolton is out, but Nicolas Maduro’s dictatorship is not. The United States must rethink its strategy urgently. This is not your garden variety authoritarian government that responds to the usual incentives.
The recently announced sanctions on Venezuelan assets aren’t an embargo, but you can’t blame people for thinking so given this embargo-loving NSC. Either way unless used as more than a stick, even these marginal changes are unlikely to achieve their goal.
Preceded by the failed dialogue rounds in Santo Domingo in 2018 and Oslo in 2019, a new dialogue to solve the crisis in Venezuela is taking place in the Caribbean island of Barbados. Will the third time be the charm?
The anticipated UN report on the situation in Venezuela released on July is roundly critical of Nicolás Maduro regime. How it will shape negotiations and international pressure though remains an open question.
Juan Guaidó’s swearing in as interim president on January 23, 2019 and his recognition by more than 50 countries as Venezuela’s legitimate president has consolidated him as the leader of the opposition. But real power remains elusive for the young leader. What must happen to finally trigger change in Venezuela?
Despite ongoing mass mobilizations, Venezuela will likely remain in flux for the foreseeable future. Backed by powerful external (illiberal) allies, the Maduro regime doesn’t have to play by the rules.