Without the proper judicial and prosecutorial reforms, the transitional justice provisions included in the U.S.’s transition framework for Venezuela will prove ineffective and worse, erode confidence in the possibilities of justice.
Juan Guaidó’s political future will be determined in the next couple of weeks, as his term as president of the National Assembly expires on January 5, 2020. The young leader has already announced his reelection bid, but with a fragmented opposition, it won’t be an easy win.
Bolton is out, but Nicolas Maduro’s dictatorship is not. The United States must rethink its strategy urgently. This is not your garden variety authoritarian government that responds to the usual incentives.
The recently announced sanctions on Venezuelan assets aren’t an embargo, but you can’t blame people for thinking so given this embargo-loving NSC. Either way unless used as more than a stick, even these marginal changes are unlikely to achieve their goal.
Preceded by the failed dialogue rounds in Santo Domingo in 2018 and Oslo in 2019, a new dialogue to solve the crisis in Venezuela is taking place in the Caribbean island of Barbados. Will the third time be the charm?
The anticipated UN report on the situation in Venezuela released on July is roundly critical of Nicolás Maduro regime. How it will shape negotiations and international pressure though remains an open question.