Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region

The unfolding crisis in Bolivia involves the stability and strategic posture of the country literally at the heart of South America. This turning point also has implications on the future access of Washington’s extra-hemispheric rivals, namely China, Russia, and Iran. With distant, mutually reinforcing global crises elsewhere, Washington’s resources and attention are in ever shorter supply, but Bolivia needs to at least be on its radar screen.

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Security Implications of The China-Cuba Alliance

After the Cold War, Cuba and China developed a strong and comprehensive alliance. Today, their collaboration is two-fold. Firstly, the economically-dependent Cuba helps China advance its myriad of interests in Latin America and the Caribbean. Secondly, the alliance meets China’s strategic needs in two broad areas: military-intelligence and biotechnology/neurosciences.

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Russia’s Latin American Policy and the June 2023 Rebellion

Russia underwent considerable political upheaval in late June 2023 as the Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group briefly threatened President Vladimir Putin’s hold on power… Russian relations between Russia and Latin America are a marriage of convenience. Both sides need and want a diversified set of trade relations, share an interest in advancing some type of multipolar global order, and have a complicated relationship with the United States.

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Let It Be: A Great Song, but an Ineffective Policy Approach

China’s expanding presence, particularly in South America, raises concerns as China strengthens ties and influence through financial dependence, investments in critical minerals, vaccine diplomacy (especially during the COVID-19 pandemic), and cultural propaganda. By strategically increasing its involvement, China could hinder the United States’ ability to project influence in the region.

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Much Ado About Nothing: Accurately Assessing Lula’s Recent International Overtures

In a global economy shaped by inflationary trends, energy shortages, and market instability, Lula’s domestic success will depend to a significant degree on his international achievements. While Bolsonaro obscured the relevance of country in the global arena, Lula expanded Brazil’s presence in the early 2000s by enlarging the list of economic partner and diversifying strategic partnerships, particularly in the global South.

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Colombia is Vulnerable to the Influence of Corrosive Capital

Colombian President Gustavo Petro introduced a new element of political risk into investment decision-making for institutional investors and other funds. The myriad of social reforms the government seeks to pass… have made Colombia too risky for some investors. However, while traditional investors are put off, other investors—including those with questionable practices in their home countries and with a greater appetite for risk—now see Colombia as a more attractive destination for their capital, as it can bring along high rewards.  

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The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion on Latin America

Today, the impact of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and its ongoing military activities against Ukraine’s population and infrastructure to occupy the country is consistent with the relationship Latin America has had with Europe historically. The effects flowing from that interdependence have been significant and multifaceted against a backdrop of a region-making an effort to distance itself from them.

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