Chances are that the opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) will win a majority of votes in Sunday’s legislative elections in Venezuela. But, an opposition victory is no guarantee of a political shift. Here are some areas to watch beyond the typical and tired storylines on the elections.
For the first time since 1960s, the United States has leverage over Cuba. Now President Obama is cleverly playing off the Republic congressional critics of his policy to encourage the Cuban regime to change if it really wants to embargo lifted.
Venezuelans are having children at higher rates than their counterparts in other countries, despite the economic crisis (aided, perhaps in part, by the condom shortage). The resulting non-working, dependent population will make it increasingly difficult for the government to sustain its high levels of redistribution, even if oil prices improve. Ultimately, demographics may be what doom the Bolivarian revolution.
Now that President Nicolás Maduro has fixed the date of the legislative elections, the Venezuelan opposition has a real opportunity to capitalize on the country’s severe economic problems and the government’s low disapproval ratings. The successes of opposition parties in Chile offer a lesson for Venezuelan opposition leaders. Here’s a three-step plan.
When analyzing Latin America, it is high time we stopped using the imagery of a “pink tide” and stop depicting the region in “good lefts” or “bad lefts.” Despite the rhetoric we often hear from politicians and pundits alike, with few exceptions we are entering an era of pragmatism and centrism.
