System dynamics involves the representation and analysis of chains of causal relationships between physical, political, social, and commercial interactions that may help to understand how a number of complex forces will affect Latin America during 2021.
As Peru wrestles with political turmoil and seeks to recover from the economic and financial effects of the pandemic, China appears well-poised to significantly expand its commercial presence and associated political influence in the country.
Peru’s security challenges vary from expanding coca production, illegal mining and timber activities, to a small but persistent terrorist threat, an emerging new criminal hub in the tri-national frontier with Brazil and Colombia, and rising public insecurity in the context of the health and socioeconomic crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The strategic position of the Caribbean as the southeastern maritime border of the United States and its link to U.S. commercial and security priorities gives Washington an interest in containing Chinese influence in the Caribbean. All of this potential engagement, however, could be jeopardized should Caribbean governments continue ramping up their security relationship with China.
The Peruvian Congress is set to debate whether to again try to impeach President Martin Vizcarra, just over a month after he survived a first impeachment trial. This time, a group of lawmakers accused the president of accepting a bribe of USD $637,000 from two companies that were later awarded public contracts during Vizcarra’s tenure as governor of Moquegua.
Looking to a post-COVID-19 future, Chinese and Brazilian economic ties will likely grow stronger. The United States and other Brazilian trade partners will need to think creatively to offer alternatives that remain competitive.
Several factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, have contributed to the possible return of populism in Bolivia. What implications does this have for the Latin America and the country’s relations with the United States?
After a year as part of the State Department’s Policy Planning staff, Evan Ellis details his time at state, and recounts the uncomfortable sense that the department was not achieving significant advancements in U.S. policy goals.
Increased dependence on China by both Latin America and the European Union not only generates vulnerabilities for both regions, but also creates strategic risks for the United States.
While virtually all ventures come with risks and challenges, engagements with China arguably present Latin America with a set of disadvantages worth considering.
